Archive for the 'articles' Category

DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SETTLE?

Friday, November 4th, 2011

             People come to mediation to settle their disputes. Or, so they claim! But, do they really want to settle? In her monthly column, One Minute Negotiation Tips, published by the Los Angeles County Bar Association (Vol. IV, No. 9, October 2011), Ms. Linda Bulmash asks this fundamental question: Is Your Client Sure That He/She Wants To Settle?

            The reason for the question is that most people base their answer on whether they think they will be happy or upset with the proposed settlement. As Ms. Bulmash explains:

“At the core of most people’s decisions regarding whether to take an offer is whether they believe they will happy if they get it or how upset they will be if they don’t get what they want. But studies have shown that people are usually wrong when predicting how happy/unhappy they will be … this has been termed “miswanting”. Attorneys and mediators are in a unique position to help their clients anticipate what their future feelings will be.”

     To meet this challenge, Ms. Bulmash suggests that the following steps be taken:

 “1. EDUCATE. Explain the phenomenon of “miswanting” to your client. As an example, you can point out that studies have shown that after the initial excitement, lottery winners are no happier than they were before they won.”

“2. HELP YOUR CLIENT IDENTIFY A DEFAULT HE/SHE CAN LIVE WITH.”

“3. USE FRAMING STRATEGIES. Remember that decision makers are strongly influenced by how information is presented. Since we tend to prefer a “sure thing” to a potential gain, frame the settlement as safer than a trial.”

“4. TIME OUT. Insist your client takes a cooling off period before making the final decision. Time away from the bargaining table makes it easier for people to control their emotions. Take your client for a walk.”

“5. HELP YOU CLIENT TO FOCUS ON THE FUTURE AND NOT THE PAST INJURY OR HURT. Ask your client to imagine waking up tomorrow having not settled and what the day would feel like. Now have him/her imagine what the day would feel like if he/she had settled.”

“6. RECOGNIZE THAT SOME CLIENTS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LETTING GO OF THE FANTASY OUTCOME. In some respects, settling is a mourning process. Your client has fantasized about the outcome of this dispute for a long time. The reality of settlement does not compare to the fantasy. Allow your client to express feelings about this.”

            By doing so, a settling party will be more accepting of the settlement and not feel that she was forced into agreeing to it. She will not have regrets or remorse afterwards, having dealt with such issues beforehand!

            . . .Just something to think about!

DECIPHERING LIFE VIA GAME THEORY

Friday, October 28th, 2011

            In its latest Technology Quarterly section, The Economist published an article entitled “Game Theory In Practice (September 3, 2011) in which it explores using “game theory” to forecast political and economic events and to resolve disputes.

            It seems that Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, an academic at New York University,  has used game theory to accurately forecast the downfall of Hosni Mubarak as Egypt’s president, the departure of Pervez Musharraf from office in Pakistan and to predict the successor to Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini. To do this, he used a computer model based on “game theory” in which numerical values are placed on goals, motivations and the influence of “players” (i.e., negotiators, business leaders, officials et cetera). “The computer model then considers the options open to the various players, determines their likely course of action, evaluates their ability to influence others and hence predicts the course of events.” (Id.) To use Mr. Mubarak’s departure as an example, the computer model considered the following:

Mr. Mubarak’s influence, for example, waned as cuts in American aid threatened his ability to keep cronies in the army and security forces happy. Underemployed citizens then realized that disgruntled officials would be less willing to use violence to put down street protests against the ailing dictator. (Id.)

 

            Other consulting firms have used game theory computer simulations to determine how “best to outfox a trial prosecutor, sway a jury, win support from shareholders or woo alienated voters. . .” (Id.)

            But, the one deficit in using such technology is that game theory cannot take emotions into account. Their predictions will go astray when irrational emotions such as hatred overtakes the pursuit of one’s best interests. Where money is the motivating factor, the computer program works well as long as human irrationality does not  intervene.

            The article describes how computer simulations have been used in auctions, to save bidders money in winning FCC (Federal Communications Commission) radio-spectrum licenses. It saved Time Warner and Comcast approximately $1.2 billion in their bid for licenses.

            Computer simulations were also used to find Osama bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

            As expected, and as I mentioned previously in this blog, efforts are underway to develop software to be used in negotiation and in mediation:

Two decades ago Clara Ponsati, a Spanish academic, came up with a clever idea while pondering the arduous Israeli-Palestinian peace process. As negotiators everywhere know, the first side to disclose all that it is willing to sacrifice (or pay) loses considerable bargaining power. Bereft of leverage, it can be pushed back to its bottom line by a clever opponent. But if neither side reveals the concession it is prepared to make, negotiations can stall or collapse. . . in 1992, Dr. Ponsati described how software could be designed to break the impasse.

            Rather than using a human mediator to nudge the parties toward common ground, a computer would do this. Negotiating parties would provide the computer with their confidential information on their bargaining position after each round. “Once positions on both sides were no longer mutually exclusive, the software would split the difference and propose an agreement.” (Id.)

            Barry O’Neill, at University of California at Los Angeles, has created a model to assist in divorce settlements: Each spouse assigns a numerical value to each household asset, giving a higher or greater value to those particular assets he/she wants to keep. They provide their valuation to the computer software which then does the rest by distributing the asset to the spouse who valued it more.

            In my previous blog on this topic, I was concerned that I might become unemployed as a mediator. But I am not so concerned anymore, as I have learned that the best software in the world cannot take into account human nature, irrational emotional behavior, or as I described last week – “difficult” people. Because of this, there will always be a need for a flesh and blood mediator like me!

            . . .Just  something to think about. 

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EFFECTIVE NEGOTIATION

Friday, October 7th, 2011

         Once again, my colleague Linda Bulmash has written a concise article on negotiation. In her September 2011 article entitled “12 Steps for Effective Negotiation” published by the Los Angeles County Bar Association (Vol. IV, No. 8), Ms. Bulmash summarizes a “practical and pragmatic negotiation strategy” put forth by Dennis Ross in his latest book Statecraft – How To Restore America’s Standing in the World (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011). Mr. Ross was the Middle East envoy and chief peace negotiator in both the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations. His twelve steps for effective negotiation include:

1. Know what you want/ know what you can live with.
2. Know everything there is to know about the decisions makers on the other side.
3. Build a relationship of trust with the key decision maker(s).
4. Keep in mind the other side’s need for an explanation.
5. To gain the hardest concessions, PROVE you understand what is important to the other side (be able to answer their WIIFM)
6. Tough love is also required: understanding and empathy is good BUT only goes so far   – make sure they understand there also are consequences.
7. Employ the good-cop, bad-cop approach carefully.
8. Understand the value and limitations of deadlines.
9. Take only calculated risks.
10.Never lie, never bluff—risk is too much damage to your credibility.
11.Don’t avoid differences: get differences in the open and discussed to eliminate future hard feelings over the resolution.
12.Summarize agreements at the end of every meeting.

           The first step is crucial: Know what it is that you want or at a minimum, what you can live with. I have participated in many a mediation in which the plaintiff did not have a clear notion what she wanted or could live with.

           The second and third step actually relate to an old Chinese concept – guanxi  or “relationship.” Connections and relationships matter. Why? Because of trust; people will negotiate with people they trust and with whom they are comfortable. Thus, in any negotiation, it is important to get to know the other party so that you can build a relationship and trust.

           The fourth step is related to the first: you must know within yourself, the reasons why you want a particular result, so that you can explain it to the other party. Typically, people do not change their positions (i.e. are not willing to concede anything) unless and until they receive new information (i.e. an explanation or a rational for it!) Thus, to have the other side see your point of view, you must have a reasonable explanation for why you want what  you want.

           At the same time, (and this references the fifth step), you must be able to explain “What’s In It For Me” (i.e what is in it for the other party) or why it is beneficial to the other party to accept or agree to your proposal. In doing so, you can explain the consequences, i.e. that there are consequences either way – if the other party accepts or rejects your proposal (step no. 5). But, at the same time, you should not bluff your way through it or  negotiate with whimsy (step nos. 7 and 10). Your credibility and trustworthiness are on the line, and so you must walk the fine line between being honest and sincere and over exaggerating and/or misrepresenting.

           The one thing I like about mediation confidentiality is that it allows opposing parties to be extremely candid with each other without fear of reprisal. Again, I have found that only when the parties really admit what are the true issues and/or what is bothering them, does the matter start moving towards resolution. An issue cannot be resolved if people won’t say or don’t say what is the real  issue , in the first place. Thus, step no. 11 is extremely important: put out in the open what the issues really are so that they can be dealt with.

           The last step – no. 12 – is simply active listening and reframing: make sure you heard and understood everything correctly and that the other parties heard and understood each item in the same way you did. That way, each of you walks out of the negotiation with the same conclusion: that the dispute has been settled.

           Looking at these 12 steps, they seem to be so simple in implement but, in the real world of disputes, they are not always so easy. But, they are still worth the effort and will make reaching a resolution easier!

            . . .Just something to think about!

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“EQUALITY” MATTERS

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

            Recently, Daniel Druckman sent me an article he co-authored with Cecilia Albin entitled “Distributive Justice and the Durability of Peace Agreements” republished in volume 37 (number 3) of the Review of International Studies at pp. 1137-1168 (2011). (Equality and Distributivbe Justice) (Abstract: Equality Matters) The article “. . . explores the relationship between principles of distributive justice and the durability of negotiated agreements.” (Id. at p. 1137). Taking a look at sixteen peace agreements negotiated in various parts of the world during the early 1990’s, researchers coded them for the four principles of distributive justice – equality, proportionality, compensation and need, to determine how critical were these principles to the lasting effect or durability of each agreement. What they found is that equality matters: those peace agreements incorporating “equality” as a core value correlated strongly with durability, and much more so than the other principles of Distributive Justice. (Id. at p. 1164).

            The authors define “Distributive Justice” as “. . .consist[ing] of general standards for allocating collective benefits or burdens among the members of a group or community. They are principles of outcome justice as distinct from justice of the process and procedures from which outcome result.” (Id. at p. 1138).

            Reading through this article, I got the sense that many of the hypotheses discussed apply with equal force to individual “peace” agreements, as well.

            For example, the authors mention that others have argued that;

Forward-looking outcomes, emphasizing improved future relationships, are thought to lead to more durable agreements than backward-looking outcomes concerned with settling past grievances and reparations. These arguments are based on the idea that justice (or fairness) promotes trust which results in more stable relationships. (Id. at p. 1141).

            The authors note that the distributive justice principles of compensation and need are “backward” looking: “compensation occurs when the parties seek to rectify damages or costs that have been incurred. . . in the past.” (Id. at p. 1146). It addresses past injustices. “Needs,” again, addresses past injustices as it “. . .refers to essential living conditions and related wants that have been neglected during the course of a conflict. Many needs are survival relevant. . . .” (Id. at p. 1146).

             Not surprisingly, the authors note that when agreements address only the symptoms (i.e. are backward-looking), the conflict tends not to disappear. Consequently, for a negotiated agreement to be lasting or durable – it must deal with the sources of conflict, or the principles of equality and proportionality and thus be forward-looking.               

            Looking back at many mediations, this concept seems to hit home; the settlement appears to be more durable where the parties agree to work together in the future, rather than simply pay money from one to the other. The concept of “trust” has a lot to do with this. In a forward looking agreement, there must be a degree of “trust” for it to work. The parties become invested in the future, and so the settlement becomes durable. 

            Equality or (“fairness”) seems to be at the heart of all negotiated durable agreements or settlements, whether they be one-on-one or nation-to-nation. Indeed, the researchers found that emphasizing equality as a core term in the agreement contributes to the success or durability of the peace agreement. “Equality” (translated as “fairness”) appears to be an universal principle that applies no matter how small or large the dispute. (Id. at pp. 1145-1147).

            What the researchers also found – which makes sense even on an individual level – is that there is a distinction between “authentic” and “tactical” justice:

 The latter is motivated by a need to appear just for reasons unrelated to fairness. It is a method of persuasion used to promote an agreement that serves the tactician’s interests or to manage a conflict that has become costly: Its effectiveness turns on perceptions of the tactician’s authenticity. . . . This negotiator is masking self-interest behind a veil of apparent joint interest. . . . (Id. at p. 1143).

            “Tactical” justice leads to a less durable agreement. (Id.)

            So, it seems that “justice” (that is, “fairness” or “equality”) matters. And, that “justice” must be “authentic.” If “justice” is used simply as a mask to better one’s own self interest at the expense of the other, the agreement will not last for long.

            Whether one speaks about disputes between neighbors, strangers, groups or nations, this wisdom rings true: everyone wants what is just and fair, and to be treated with equality.  So even though this article deals with international disputes between warring factions seeking to end civil wars and strife and to create peace, it seems to me that its hypotheses and the principles of distributive justice apply to the everyday disputes that we all seem to have from time to time.  No matter how small the dispute, we  still want “justice” and to be treated fairly and equally.

            . . .Just something to think about! 

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CRYING DOESN’T HELP

Friday, August 5th, 2011

            As a mediator, I am sometimes confronted with a party who starts to cry as she tells me her story or relates some aspect that is very emotional. My inclination is to hand her a box of Kleenex and attempt to assure her that it is alright to cry and, in fact, will probably do her “good.”

            Well, a recent study indicates that the folklore that a good cry is good is incorrect. A new study published in the August 2011 issue of the Journal of Research in Personality (entitled When and for whom does crying improve mood? A daily diary study of 1004 crying episodes) indicates that crying is not as cathartic as we all think it is. Rather, “. . .shedding tears only improved mood in one-third of cryers who kept tabs of their bawling behaviors. . . .” (“Crying shame: Tears don’t make you feel any better, study shows” by Cari Nierenberg) (http://bodyodd.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/28/7190543-etc.)

            Researchers asked 97 women aged 18 to 48 in the Netherlands to keep a daily diary of their moods and crying spells over a 60 to 90 day period. Men were not included in the study.

            Each participant noted her mood each day, whether she had an urge to cry and if she, in fact, did so. For each crying episode, the participant jotted down the reason for it, its length, its intensity, where it occurred, if others were present and how they felt afterwards.

            These diaries provided 1,004 crying episodes to analyze. The researchers found that on an average, each episode lasted eight minutes, occurred in the living room, either alone or with one other present and resulted from seeing others suffer or due to conflict or loss. (Id.)

            Most importantly, 61% “reported no change in mood compared to how they felt before” they cried. “Thirty percent experienced a better mood afterwards and nine percent felt worse.” (Id.)

            So, contrary to conventional wisdom, crying does not necessarily improve one’s mood. For those whose mood did improve, it was the intensity of the sobbing, rather than its length, that made the difference: the more intense sobbing led to a better mood.

            The teachable moment is that if someone is going to cry during a mediation, it should be intense. Otherwise, there is only a one in three chance that the sobbing will improve her mood and possibly lead to a good outcome at the mediation.

             . . .Just something to think about!

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